Friday, September 19, 2008

Big Willy Style's Football Friday

College Football

4* Auburn (+2.5) over LSU - Both these teams seem to be mirror images of each other, inexperienced QB's, dominating defenses, superior coaching. The home field advantage factor is huge in this game as the last 8 meetings have had the home team come out on top. Although past trends and results mean nothing tomorrow night, it is hard to go against Auburn at home, getting points, with that defense and big game Tommy against anybody. Take the Tigers but the ones wearing black tomorrow night.

3* Arizona (-3) over UCLA - Both teams are coming off humiliating losses last week against a team from a mid-major conference. UCLA came severly back down to earth after that massacre they suffered at the hands of BYU. Arizona is a much better team than what they showed last week in their loss to New Mexico and have one of the more explosive offenses in the Pac-10. They have showed consistency over the last 3 weeks which tells me they should have no problem keeping up the trend tomorrow by rolling over a reeling UCLA defense. The Wildcats get back on track tomorrow.

3* Fresno St (-7) over Toledo - We'll roll with the Bulldogs again as we expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder this week after blowing it against Wisconsin last week. Toledo's squad is not what it has been in past seasons, and Fresno has too much senior leadership on that team to have a down week and get upset. I expect Pat Hill's squad to be angry and come out fast and never look back with an easy 2 TD victory at least.

2* Air Force (+9.5) over Utah - Upset alert for the Utes here. Air Force is at home and has built momentum early this season and ALWAYS has giving Utah trouble year in and year out. Air Force has been know for their great running game, but the difference in this game will be their underrated defense which has allowed 12.6 points per game this season that will hold Utah down. Don't think those previous debacles vs. the Falcons will be running through the heads of Utah once Air Force gets a lead. This one will be a battle.

2* East Carolina (-7) over NC State - East Carolina's defense held down powerhouses Virginia Tech and West Virgina with relative ease. So how on earth is NC States pathetic offense going to be able to gain a yard in this game.... how? East Carolina can play defense blindfolded in this one if they want because there is no chance NC State's putrid offense will muster any more than 7-10 points. Not to mention the wolfpack is ravaged with injuries and the Pirates are gaining more and more steam and confidence with every week.... Take the Pirates, ARRRRGHHHHHH


Pro Football

5* Broncos (-5.5) over Saints - I think the Broncos go for 80 in this one. They are playing with serious momentum over last week's gutsy last second victory over their division rivals in San Diego, who they put up 39 on. Their opponent is down in the dumps after blowing a game to the lowly Redskins, and their secondary is banged up. Yes the same secondary that has to deal with suddenly the leagues most explosive passing game at mile high, a place the Saints havent visited since 1994. Jay Cutler will have his way all game long in this one and move his team to 3-0 and the dominating force in the AFC west.

3* Titans (-4.5) over Texans - The titans will continue their winning ways this weekend by dispatching division rival Houston, a team in disarray. The Texans simply dont have enough firepower to compete with Tennessee's dominating defense, and will struggle to move the ball all game long. Kerry Collins just wins football games, and should have no problem moving his team down the field against a Houston defense that struggles to put pressure on the quarterback, which is the only time Kerry runs into trouble. Look for Tennessee move to 3-o after a convincing 2 TD victory.

3* Panthers (+3) over Vikings - I've been hearing all week on ESPN that the Vikings are desperate and no way they lose this one at home as they are too good a team to start 0-3. Somebody tell me why Minnesota should be an elite NFC power. Their passing game is atrocious (and if someone out there thinks Gus Frerotte will improve that, kindly leave), their secondary is a joke, oh and on top of that Adrian Peterson may not play, and if he does wont be anywhere near himself. Couple this with a 2-0 team that is getting the best WR in football back this week to go with a now healthy Jake Delhomme and the Vikes are going to have issues. Take Carolina.

2* Falcons (-6) over Chiefs - The Falcons should have no problem dispatching the struggling Cheifs. I dont think Herm Edwards' classic rants can save his squad this year, as they have shown no signs of being a competitive football team this year. Yes even the Falcons can beat down on them. KC gave up 300 yards rushing to the Raiders last week, so (fantasy alert) expect Michael Turner to be able to backpedal his way to 100 yards rushing. Matt Ryan will get over his poor performance last week in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome.

2* Bills (-9.5) over Raiders - Alrite I'll admit it, I have a hard-on for the Bills. Look the freak out for this team this year and look for them to win by 20 in week 3. Darren Mcfadden wont come near the success he had this week because well, hes not playing the Chiefs (see above). The Bills defense is as good as it gets and Trent Edwards is slowly becoming the best QB in the league you've never heard of (mainly because hes not starting for a fantasy team because QB rating isnt a fantasy category). Watch the Bills pull away in the second half and move to 3-0, I cant wait for them to take on the Pats.

College Football YTD (8-7) +3.1 units
Pro Football YTD (4-5-1) -3.4 units
Pending: Bears (1-1) under 7.5 wins (5 units) and Titans (2-0) over 8 wins (2 units)

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