Friday, September 19, 2008

Beans' Weekly Winners: Week 4

LSU at Auburn (+2.5), 7:45pm
The balance of power in the SEC West is usually at stake in the Tiger Bowl, as the winner of this game has gone on to win five of the past seven SEC West crowns. The home team has won the past eight meetings, so getting Auburn as a home dog looks great. We know a baseball game broke out at what was supposed to be the Auburn-Mississippi State football game last week, but a win is a win, even if the score is 3-2. The Auburn defense is as tough as its ever been, and the offense is still working some of the kinks out after moving to the ever popular spread this past off-season. We tend to believe that Tubberville has some offensive tricks up his sleeve that we didn't see in the Mississippi State game. Both teams are inexperienced at the QB position, which doesn't bode well for the visitors. Taking an inexperienced QB on the road in the SEC, against a defense like this spells trouble. Auburn knows all about winning big games as they have taken down nine of the last 12 against Top 10 teams. Meanwhile, LSU is 1-6-1 against the spread [ATS] in their past eight SEC games. The Weekly sees a hard hitting, tight football game that Auburn squeaks out.

Wake Forest (+5) at Florida State, 7pm
Are the Seminoles going to be prepared to play in this game? Maybe, but they certainly won't be as prepared as the Demon Deacons. Florida State has the softest 2-0 record in the nation by beating Western Carolina and Chattanooga by a combined score of 115-7. While the 'Noles were beating up on a couple of nobodies, the Demon Deacons went out and scheduled some decent competition. They beat Baylor on the road and found a way to win against a much improved Ole Miss team at home. It's not like they beat USC and Oklahoma, but at least they're games that will get them ready for their ACC schedule. In each of the past four meetings Wake has covered as an underdog, winning the past two straight up. The Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games, 4-1 ATS in the past five road games, as well as 8-2 ATS in their last ten games overall. On the other hand the 'Noles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring 40 or more points in their previous game, which leads us to believe that scheduling those cupcakes really doesn't do much good for anyone involved. Oh, and we refuse to be bitten by the bad kicker bug this week since Wake has one of the top kickers in the nation in Sam Swank. The Demon Deacons go into Tallahassee and become only the 2nd ACC team to beat FSU in three consecutive seasons.

Notre Dame at Michigan State (-8.5), 3:30pm
Irish fans want to get excited about the 2-0 start, but we aren't about to let that happen. Barely holding on to beat lowly San Diego State and having Michigan hand them the game last week is really nothing to get excited about. Meanwhile, the newest addition to The Weekly Favorites, Michigan State RB Javon Ringer, had a field day last week in the rain, carrying 43 times for 282 yards. How can a workhorse like that not be a Weekly Favorite? Notre Dame beat Michigan last week on the strength of six -- count 'em -- six Wolverine turnovers. The Spartans won't be careless with the football this week, especially because they'll be feeding Ringer the ball all day long. Following an opening day loss to Cal, Michigan State has rebounded well by beating Eastern Michigan and Florida Atlantic. Unless the Irish find a way to create six more turnovers (which they won't), the inconsistency of QB Jimmy Claussen will finally come back to bite the Irish as Ringer and the Spartans literally run away with this one.

Rutgers (-5.5) at Navy, 3:30pm
We predicted a down season for Rutgers, but not this far down. It could turn out that the first two games Rutgers played were against top teams. Fresno State is very good, despite the loss to Wisconsin, and some people think UNC is primed for a run at the ACC title. We like to pick on Rutgers QB Mike Teel, but is he really as bad as the 1 TD and 5 INTs he's thrown in the first two games? We're starting to think that he was just going up against some tough defenses. Even Teel should be able to pick apart this Navy defense, which is coming off a week where they allowed 41 points to Duke. The Scarlet Knights still have talented WRs in Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood who can break a game open. Navy is 0-2 and may be in for a long year with former coach and Weekly Favorite Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech. Look for Rutgers to spread it out and put a whole bunch of points up on a porous Midshipmen defense.

Good Luck. Many Hundos.