Friday, September 5, 2008

Beans' Weekly Winners: Week 2

West Virginia (-7.5) at East Carolina, 4:30pm
The Weekly sees great value in this line thanks to East Carolina's upset over Virginia Tech last week. We hate to break up the party in Greenville, but lightning doesn't strike twice. The Pirates played a great game against Virginia Tech and still needed a late punt block which was returned for a touchdown to pull out the win. This week they're playing a team whose talent level is far superior to that of the Hokies. People around the West Virginia program claim that this year's edition of the Mountaineers is better than last year's despite the loss of a few key players, namely Steve Slaton. By last November it was pretty clear that Slaton was disinterested and his absence can be viewed as addition by subtraction. What's really scary about Slaton's departure is that when sophomore RB Noel Devine takes Slaton's place, the Mountaineers will be even more talented, not less. West Virginia returns all five starters on an offensive line which powered a rushing attack that ranked third in the nation in 2007. We'll be seeing more out of the WVU passing game, as the coaches seem to be willing to lift some stress off the running game and let QB Pat White take what the defense gives him. Last week Villanova stuffed nine guys in the box all day and White went off for five touchdowns through the air. Last year the Mountaineers played very poor hosts to the Pirates, dishing out a 48-7 whipping. The Weekly sees a lot more where that came from as White, Devine and company hang at least a half-a-hundo on the Pirates.

Texas Tech (-10) at Nevada, 9pm
We know, we know -- two road favorites. Road favorites are the scariest proposition in gambling, but these numbers are just too enticing. The Nevada defense is going to have their hands full on Saturday. Tech QB Graham Harrell can be forced into mistakes by applying pressure, but the Wolfpack will have to create that pressure with their front four. If they can't apply pressure with the front four look out, because what makes Harrell so good is that he gets rid of the ball extremely quick and just one poorly timed blitz could be an instant six for Tech. Nevada will constantly need seven guys in coverage to defend against the Red Raiders' big play ability. That's where the Pack is really going to run into trouble. The Red Raiders receivers have a huge athletic advantage over the Nevada secondary and Weekly favorite Mike Leach is a brilliant game-planner. Everyone knows all about Tech WR Michael Crabtree, but the solid receiving corps goes five deep with Eric Morris, Edward Britton, Ryan Hale and Detron Lewis all contributing. All the talk surrounding Texas Tech is about their improved defense but don't let that fool you, this team is about offense. Tech lights up the scoreboard in a fun, but lopsided affair.

Mississippi (+8) at Wake Forest, 3:30pm
The Rebels are one of this year's Weekly sleeper teams. During the off-season Ole Miss brought in Houston Nutt, a creative, salty veteran head coach who is no stranger to life in the SEC. More importantly for this Rebel team, they'll have a legitimate threat at quarterback in sophomore Jevan Snead. Snead sat out last season after transferring in from Texas, where he displayed all the talent but was a questionable decision maker. Under Nutt's tutelage Snead should flourish. What may be an early indicator of how Nutt and Snead have instantly elevated the program is the way they took care of business in Week 1. This was the Rebel's fourth consecutive opening day win over Memphis, but the first time they truly dominated the Tigers. Throughly unimpressive in their Week 1 win over Baylor, Wake seems very vulnerable at the moment. We've seen how these SEC-ACC games have been going this year, and we'll ride that until something tells us otherwise. In what will be their first bowl bound season since the Eli Manning era, Ole Miss will upset Wake Forest on the road.

Buffalo at Pittsburgh (-13.5), 6pm
Another line that we see a lot of value in thanks to a Week 1 upset. Even though Pitt lost two separate ten point leads in an opening day loss to Bowling Green, the season is not lost for the Panthers. Hopefully last weekend was a serious wake-up call for this team, who was touted as a sleeper to contend in the Big East. If you take a look at the numbers from last week, it's a miracle that Bowling Green was even in the game, forget about winning it. They were outdone by Pitt in every statistical category except one -- turnovers. This week's opponent, Buffalo, is simply over-matched. Head Coach Turner Gill has done a nice job in making the Bulls competitive in the MAC, but they are hardly ready to compete on the big stage. Look for Pittsburgh to come out refocused and motivated as they hold onto the ball and win this one going away.

Good luck to all. Many hundos.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

It might be the kiss of death, but I like the Texas Tech pick.