Friday, October 10, 2008

Beans' Weekly Winners: Week 7

Vanderbilt at Mississippi State (+2.5), 2:30pm
A couple of major factors at play here. Isn't Vandy 5-0? Isn't Mississippi State 1-4? Didn't Vandy just beat a ranked Auburn team? Is this the same Mississippi State team who got beaten by Louisiana Tech? Yes, yes, yes and yes. Okay, then why is Vandy only a 2.5 point favorite? That's the million dollar question. We think that's because the Commodores aren't as good as their 5-0 record and the Bulldogs are better than their 1-4 record. Vandy ranks 115th in Division 1-A in total yards. Eventually that's going to come back to bite them. You have to be able to move the ball to win games. An opportunistic defensive will only take them so far. If they fail to create turnovers they are in lots of trouble. As for the Bulldogs, they had a nice showing in their last game two weeks ago at LSU, losing 34-24. Freshman QB Tyson Lee had an incredible debut considering the defense he was facing, going 17-26 for 175 yards, a touchdown and no picks against the Tigers. The other major factor at play working against Vandy is the same one which was working for Vandy last weekend. Mississippi State is coming off a bye week, while Vandy scratched and clawed for sixty minutes with Auburn last week. Add in that the Commodores have to travel to Mississippi, and we have an upset in the making.

Nebraska at Texas Tech (-21), 3pm
Texas Tech has finally hit its stride, just in time for a reeling Nebraska defense to travel to Lubbock. The Huskers are the last Division 1-A team to play on the road this year, and they won't be warmly welcomed by a Red Raider offense which is ranked 2nd in the nation in total yards and 1st in passing yards. Tech QB Graham Harrell is on pace to become 2nd on the NCAA's list of all time passing yards, in just three years as a starting QB. Insane. Nebraska couldn't handle Virginia Tech or Missouri, they surely aren't going to suddenly be able to handle Texas Tech. The last time the Huskers traveled to Lubbock the Red Raiders hung 70 on the board. Look for Harrell, Crabtree and company to light up the scoreboard in an easy Tech win.

LSU at Florida (-6), 8pm
The reigning Heisman Trophy winner didn't need any extra motivation this week. Foolishly, the LSU defensive line gave it to him. Whether the Ricky-Jean Francois meant it or not, he gave Tebow some bulletin board material. Tim Tebow is the kind of player thrives in the spotlight and we think this is his time to shine. LSU sophomore QB Jarrett Lee played well on the road at Auburn, but this Florida team and The Swamp are a different animal. Unlike Auburn, Florida is proven at the quarterback position which will end up being the difference in this game. Look for a fast Gators' defense to cause Lee problems all day long, as the Gators hold LSU to 14 points or fewer and Florida wins by ten.

Oklahoma State at Missouri -- Over 78.5, 7pm
Yup, we're going with the "If It's That High, It's That High For A Reason" Theory. The Tigers and Pokes feature the second and third highest scoring teams in the nation, averaging 53.4 and 52.6 points per game. Let's start with Missouri. The Tigers have had 49 straight possessions without a 3-and-out. We'll repeat that for effect. The Tigers have had 49 straight possessions without a 3-and-out. That may be the greatest offensive accomplishment in the modern era. Mizzou has playmakers all over the field and the best quarterback in the nation. They'll be going up against a young secondary, who won't be capable of slowing down this ridiculous offense. Everyone knows how prolific Missouri is, but nobody seems to realize how good Okie State is. QB Zac Robinson has led 13 touchdown drives which have lasted under two minutes. The Cowboys average over 300 yards a game on the ground and Missouri's run defense has been suspect all year. Look for the Tigers to hang close to 60 on the board and the Cowboys to be somewhere in the high 30's. It's going to be that kind of game.

Good Luck. Many Hundos.

No comments: