Georgia (-9.5) at Auburn, 12:30pm
Auburn is simply not a good football team right now. They don't have a legitimate quarterback and thus cannot move the football. The Tigers have won just two of their past seven games with those two wins coming against a couple of lowly Tennessee schools, Tennessee and Tennessee-Martin (who are basically indistinguishable at this point). On the other hand, Georgia can move the ball. In recent weeks the Georgia offense has found their rhythm against every team not named Florida. New Jersey product Knowshon Moreno is averaging an impressive 5.9 yards per carry, and Matthew Stafford is having his best year as Bulldog quarterback. The Tigers haven't scored more than 22 points in an SEC game yet this season, meanwhile the Bulldogs have scored at least 24 points in five of their seven SEC games. Look for more of the same this weekend as Georgia puts Auburn one more loss closer to missing a bowl game while making Tommy Tubberville's seat that much hotter. Dawgs win by at least two touchdowns.
UCLA (-6.5) at Washington, 10:15pm
Hey, just because a game features two teams who aren't any good doesn't mean you can't at least make some money off of it. This is a good spot for the Bruins in a year mostly devoid of good spots. The Bruins aren't very good, but they have taken care of business against teams they should beat. As long as that holds true, this should be a layup. UCLA's three wins came against Tennessee, Stanford and Washington State -- teams they're supposed to beat. Their six losses all came against teams who will be going to a bowl this year -- teams they shouldn't beat. The only BCS conference team who is anywhere near as bad as Washington is their in-state counterpart Washington State. The Cougars are winless on the season and have been outscored by an embarrassing average of 26 points per game. UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel will be going against a Washington program which he led to a Pac-10 title and Rose Bowl victory for the first time. The program has been crippled since he left and now he'll be able to add further to the pain of the Cougar faithful. Washington puts up another stinker as UCLA cruises.
Troy (+16.5) at LSU, 8pm
No, that's not a typo. We're sure most of you don't even know where Troy University is -- that would be southern Alabama. LSU has been on a downswing in the past six weeks. Both Georgia and Florida hung 50 on the Bayou Bengals and although they took #1 Alabama to overtime, they still lost the game. The Weekly has constantly knocked LSU QB Jarrett Lee and rightly so. The sophomore from Brenham, Texas has been unimpressive at best. He's throw 13 touchdowns and 14 picks while only completing 53.4% of his passes. As The Weekly watches more and more football, we think it becomes more and more evident that defensive lines win and lose games. Stopping the run and creating pressure with your front four is essential in order to play winning football. The Trojans have SEC-quality talent on the defensive line. They are fifth in the country in sacks with 29, they'll get to and rattle Lee just enough to make this a game. Baton Rouge will be rockin' as always, but these Trojans are a feisty bunch. It may be a tough game, but Troy covers for us.
Oklahoma State at Colorado (+17.5), 8pm
The Weekly hates picking these late games since that means we have to sit around all day waiting and it seems like we've been taking lots of these late games in 2008, but we digress... The Cowboys are having a stellar season, but have historically had trouble winning in Boulder. More importantly, the Buffaloes have been solid at home this season. They're 5-1 at home with the lone loss coming against the mighty Longhorns from the University of Texas. Sophomore signal caller Cody Hawkins has been getting better every week and should be able to move the ball against a porous Okie State secondary. Buffs RB Rodney Stewart has been impressive in his rookie campaign and he gives Colorado another way to attack the Cowboy defense. The Oklahoma State offense may be a bit much for the Buffaloes to win this one outright, but Hawkins and Stewart will be able to give the Buffs a shot to win it in the 4th quarter.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Friday, November 7, 2008
Beans' Weekly Winners: Week 11
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (-3.5), 8pm
As we said you're going to see some old favorites this week. We love, love, love the Raiders in this spot. Oklahoma State is way too good to be overlooked by anyone, so this is certainly not a trap game. For those of us who were lucky enough to watch Saturday night's game between Texas and Texas Tech (yes, it was that good) you noticed that it was an extremely emotional game. Those fans in Lubbock were wild and the team definitely fed off of their excitement. This week should be no different. They'll be playing under the lights against a top 10 ranked Big XII South rival for the second straight week and those fans won't let the Red Raiders experience a letdown. For years we've been talking about Tech's offense, but now they have the defense to match it. The D-Line has been phenomenal all year long, especially last week against Texas. The Raiders should be able to slow the Cowboy running attack just enough to put QB Zac Robinson in some third-and-longs, where the Raiders thrive. The Raiders can get pressure on the quarterback without blitzing and have a pair of ballhawking safeties in Darcel McBath and Daniel Charbonnet, who have each picked off five balls this season. That combination will make it really tough, even for a potent offense like Oklahoma State, to make any long conversions. We worry a little about the hook here, so maybe you want to buy a half-point, but we're confident that the Harrell for Heisman campaign will come out of Week 11 with another win for its cause.
Purdue at Michigan State (-10), noon
Lots of factors at work in this play. The Boilermakers are not just a bad road team, they are a terrible road team. They're 0-3 and have yet to be competitive on the road this season. The defense ranks 91st in the nation against the rush, allowing 176 yards per game. That sounds like a recipe for disaster against a run-heavy Spartan offense. Weekly Favorite and Michigan State RB Javon Ringer has recovered from a virus and is expected to be at 100% for Saturday. Ringer hasn't rushed for 200 yards in a Big Ten game yet this year, we think that will change. Michigan State is still alive for a Big Ten championship despite losing to Ohio State a few weeks back. If they can win Saturday and then stage an upset of Penn State next week they would be conference champions thanks to a unique tiebreaker system which The Weekly applauds. In the event of a 3-way tie between Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State, Michigan State would be awarded the conference title because they did not schedule a Division 1-AA opponent this year, while the other two purchased a couple of wins. Hopefully this would wake these schools up and force them to schedule some more challenging opponents. Anyway, this game will help set the table for Michigan State. Javon Ringer will personally account for more points than the entire Purdue team. Spartans win big.
Kansas (+1.5) at Nebraska, 2:30pm
Are we missing something here? Nebraska isn't a good football team. They have lost four of their past six games with the two wins coming over perennial Big XII cellar-dwellers Iowa State and Baylor. Kansas may have gotten lit up by Texas Tech and Oklahoma, but very few teams don't get lit up by Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Kansas QB Todd Reesing is the best quarterback that nobody cares about. Didn't this guy win the Orange Bowl last year? Doesn't this guy have 20 touchdown passes and over 2600 yards this year? Didn't this guy lead Kansas to a 76-39 win against Nebraska last year? Yes, yes and yes. Okay -- but now he's a one and a half point dog at Nebraska? Someone really mis-marked this line. Let's take advantage and hammer it. Kansas is tied for 1st place in the Big XII South and eyeing a showdown in the Border War with archrival Missouri for the division title. If they're going to trip up on their way to a division title it will be next week against Texas, not this week at Nebraska. Remember they hung 76 -- seventy-six -- points on the Huskers last year. The Husker D hasn't looked much better in 2008. Kansas hangs another 40 on the scoreboard and cruises to their 4th Big XII victory.
Cal at Southern California (-22), 8pm
Over/under 20.5 points against the USC defense over their final four regular season games? Sadly for their opponents, that's a legitimate question. The Bears' offense is going to have a long, long day at the office on Saturday. We could draw it out and talk about how USC has pitched three shutouts in its last four games and throw crazy stats out there like their opponents have averaged 7 points per game this year but it's really much simpler than that. A shaky offensive line + Nate Longshore as your quarterback + a pissed off USC defense = no points for Cal. The USC offense will grind out plenty of points. Until someone proves they can move the ball against these guys, we'll keep taking them. Look for something like Trojans 35 - Bears 3.
Good Luck. Many Hundos.
As we said you're going to see some old favorites this week. We love, love, love the Raiders in this spot. Oklahoma State is way too good to be overlooked by anyone, so this is certainly not a trap game. For those of us who were lucky enough to watch Saturday night's game between Texas and Texas Tech (yes, it was that good) you noticed that it was an extremely emotional game. Those fans in Lubbock were wild and the team definitely fed off of their excitement. This week should be no different. They'll be playing under the lights against a top 10 ranked Big XII South rival for the second straight week and those fans won't let the Red Raiders experience a letdown. For years we've been talking about Tech's offense, but now they have the defense to match it. The D-Line has been phenomenal all year long, especially last week against Texas. The Raiders should be able to slow the Cowboy running attack just enough to put QB Zac Robinson in some third-and-longs, where the Raiders thrive. The Raiders can get pressure on the quarterback without blitzing and have a pair of ballhawking safeties in Darcel McBath and Daniel Charbonnet, who have each picked off five balls this season. That combination will make it really tough, even for a potent offense like Oklahoma State, to make any long conversions. We worry a little about the hook here, so maybe you want to buy a half-point, but we're confident that the Harrell for Heisman campaign will come out of Week 11 with another win for its cause.
Purdue at Michigan State (-10), noon
Lots of factors at work in this play. The Boilermakers are not just a bad road team, they are a terrible road team. They're 0-3 and have yet to be competitive on the road this season. The defense ranks 91st in the nation against the rush, allowing 176 yards per game. That sounds like a recipe for disaster against a run-heavy Spartan offense. Weekly Favorite and Michigan State RB Javon Ringer has recovered from a virus and is expected to be at 100% for Saturday. Ringer hasn't rushed for 200 yards in a Big Ten game yet this year, we think that will change. Michigan State is still alive for a Big Ten championship despite losing to Ohio State a few weeks back. If they can win Saturday and then stage an upset of Penn State next week they would be conference champions thanks to a unique tiebreaker system which The Weekly applauds. In the event of a 3-way tie between Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State, Michigan State would be awarded the conference title because they did not schedule a Division 1-AA opponent this year, while the other two purchased a couple of wins. Hopefully this would wake these schools up and force them to schedule some more challenging opponents. Anyway, this game will help set the table for Michigan State. Javon Ringer will personally account for more points than the entire Purdue team. Spartans win big.
Kansas (+1.5) at Nebraska, 2:30pm
Are we missing something here? Nebraska isn't a good football team. They have lost four of their past six games with the two wins coming over perennial Big XII cellar-dwellers Iowa State and Baylor. Kansas may have gotten lit up by Texas Tech and Oklahoma, but very few teams don't get lit up by Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Kansas QB Todd Reesing is the best quarterback that nobody cares about. Didn't this guy win the Orange Bowl last year? Doesn't this guy have 20 touchdown passes and over 2600 yards this year? Didn't this guy lead Kansas to a 76-39 win against Nebraska last year? Yes, yes and yes. Okay -- but now he's a one and a half point dog at Nebraska? Someone really mis-marked this line. Let's take advantage and hammer it. Kansas is tied for 1st place in the Big XII South and eyeing a showdown in the Border War with archrival Missouri for the division title. If they're going to trip up on their way to a division title it will be next week against Texas, not this week at Nebraska. Remember they hung 76 -- seventy-six -- points on the Huskers last year. The Husker D hasn't looked much better in 2008. Kansas hangs another 40 on the scoreboard and cruises to their 4th Big XII victory.
Cal at Southern California (-22), 8pm
Over/under 20.5 points against the USC defense over their final four regular season games? Sadly for their opponents, that's a legitimate question. The Bears' offense is going to have a long, long day at the office on Saturday. We could draw it out and talk about how USC has pitched three shutouts in its last four games and throw crazy stats out there like their opponents have averaged 7 points per game this year but it's really much simpler than that. A shaky offensive line + Nate Longshore as your quarterback + a pissed off USC defense = no points for Cal. The USC offense will grind out plenty of points. Until someone proves they can move the ball against these guys, we'll keep taking them. Look for something like Trojans 35 - Bears 3.
Good Luck. Many Hundos.
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