Thursday, October 30, 2008

Mister Ted's Take on this past week in NFL

How much longer until TO comes out and says he hasn't scored enough touchdowns yet this season? Over/under is at 2 weeks....The Buccaneers either forgot to watch tape on the Cowboys last week or just aren't very good. Three field goals was all they could manage on a defense that last week made Stephen Jackson look like Bo Jackson from Tecmo Super Bowl?

I could have sworn Mike Martz left the Lions for the 49ers last season, but I'm guessing he still might be calling in plays to Coach Marinelli (33 yards from their 2 RBs)…Portis ran for 126 more yards Sunday, continuing his dominance. Santana Moss stole the show though with his 80 yard punt return for a TD, after it looked like he would be tackled for a 1 yard loss.

Joey Porter leads the league in sacks with an insane 10.5 through 7 games. Amazing how much more effective he is in a 3-4 D…Buffalo lost 3 fumbles in the process of falling to the Fish; I guess it was the kiss of death I gave them last week (your welcome AFC East fans).

So much for the Rams winning streak; at least they're playing competitive football and have some life on both sides of the team (top pick Chris Long notched 2 sacks)…I don't remember the last time this has happened in a game, but the Patriots played a perfect, penalty-less game on Sunday. Is it me, or is that pretty uncommon in the game today?

Drew Brees continues to impress me each week. To me, he is Steve Nash in pads. Both players left their original teams to play somewhere else, they spread the ball around to everyone, they see things develop before everyone else, and are just flat out fun to watch.

Pretty ironic that the most exciting game the Jets played was on Sunday against former coach Herm Edwards. Three Jets turnovers apparently was not enough for the Chiefs to win, but two things are for sure. One, Leon Washington needs the rock more, and two, the Jets are playing not to lose, which won't account for many wins in this league.

Brian Westbrook's return to the lineup was too much for a young Falcons team to overcome; as long as he is healthy the Eagles have a shot at the playoffs…the Ryan/White connection is reminding me a lot of the Manning/Harrison connection earlier in their careers. Ryan might not have the potential that Peyton has, but Roddy White's ceiling is as high as Marvin's.

Good to see Anquan Boldin back to catching touchdowns after that vicious hit he took in New York. If only the Cardinals secondary could have covered and tackled Steve Smith, they might have come out with a win (side-note: Boldin also led the Cardinals in rushing with 30 yards).

192 yards on the ground for Baltimore set the tone against the Raiders. I'm sure Al Davis is still convinced that this is all somehow Lane Kiffin's fault. What a joke this franchise has become.

Someone please take the 2008 Cincinnati Bengals out back and put a bullet in them…just put them out of their misery already.

Good news: Matt Jones doesn't snort cocaine anymore, but I was convinced on Sunday he snorted more than enough smelling salt on the sidelines; he finally came to play on a Sunday. Bad news: the rest of the Jaguars looked like they stayed up all night blowing lines off their playbooks. Not looking good for the Jaguars this season…

The Giants defense exposed a major flaw in the Steelers offense: the offensive line. Pressure Roethlisburger and watch the dividends pay off. Aside from the two touchdowns the Steelers had, the offense looked like nothing special. The GMen proved that they can still play with anyone in the league.

Congratulations to Coach Singletary for guaranteeing himself a spot on ESPN for the rest of his life after he went nuts on Vernon Davis. Good tirade, but definitely not the best. Ditka easily takes that one down, followed closely by Dennis Green's "They are who we thought they were" explosion. Of course you can never rule out Herm's infamous "You play to win the game" speech.

The Titans keep winning, and Peyton Manning continues to grimace at the very thought of his team not only bowing down to a new division winner but also not even making the playoffs at all. What a world we live in where a Kerry Collins led team is undefeated. I've got nothing but respect for him and what Jeff Fisher continues to do in Hicksville, USA.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Big Baby Dean's PickSlip for 10/25

The Thursday Night game ended awful. I still cannot believe it. However, in this business you know you will win some and lose some. The losses you have to forget about and begin to look for new potential winners. Well read below for my Saturday picks:

6* South Florida (-4) @ Louisville 330pm
Love Love Love this game. In the past I have always been on South Florida's side but I think this may be the first time I am picking them this year. Please tell me this is Louisville's homecoming because thats the only thing that may keep this game close. Both teams haven't played the toughest schedules but USF looks night and day over Louisville. The Bulls can attack Louisville with the strong run game or even through the air. Grothe will take charge and lead South Florida in this one.
Pick: South Florida (-4)

4* Georgia (PK) @ LSU 330pm
SEC road dogs are on fire this year. On top of that, to me these teams are heading in separate directions and you will see for yourself on Saturday. The Bulldogs are led by Matthew Stafford and Jersey native Knowshon Moreno. Georgia's defense will be all over the LSU offense. The Bulldogs have too much firepower in this game and will win outright.
Pick: Georgia (PK)

3* Michigan State (-3.5) vs Michigan 330pm
Look for Javon Ringer and the Spartan offense to bounce back after that humiliating loss to the Buckeyes last week. Michigan has not shown much and I don't think this week will be the week for them. The Spartan defense will be amped up and will be too much for the Meeshigan offense. The spread is low because its a rivalry game at Michigan and MSU is coming off a big loss. Take the Spartans. Pick: Michigan State (-3.5)

2* Oklahoma State @ Texas (Over 66.5) 330pm
There is a reason that this total is so high. We will see lots of point in this one. Both of these teams can put a lot of points up quickly. Texas is averaging 48 pts a game and they didn't exactly play walkover teams. This was against some good competition. Oklahoma State is putting up 46 a game. Try and watch this game fellas if you want to see a back and forth game with a lot of points. To me, this is what college ball is about. The new ncaa rules scare me a little, but doesn't seem to scare these 2 teams. Colt McCoy and Zac Robinson will surely be trading back TD for TD in this one. Pick: OSU / Texas (Over 66.5)

2* USC @ Arizona (+16) 1015pm
USC is still one of the most explosive teams on offense and defense in all of football. They are still the team to beat in my opinion. However, this is a veteran Arizona team under a good up and coming coach. Willy Tuitama and Nic Grigsby will be the focal points for the USC defense. Also, Arizona has not lost on homecoming in a few years now. I don't know if this trend will stand, but I think they will definitely cover the game. Arizona only lost by 7 pts last year and tomorrow they will be in their back yard. 3 scores is a lot against a veteran Wildcat team who has been playing everyone tough. Pick: Arizona (+16)

2* Ole Miss (-5) @ Arkansas 7pm
This is a very underrated game since both teams are 1-3 in the SEC West this year. Both teams have played Alabama and Florida. Arkansas went through a stretch of playing Bama, Texas, Florida, and Auburn. Thats insane but hey, thats what you get when you are in the SEC. Ole Miss needs to stop Michael Smith to take control of this game. One way they can do this is to get out to an early lead with QB Jevan Snead and WR's Shay Hodge and Dexter McCluster. Pick: Ole Miss (-5)

1* Penn St (-2.5) @ Ohio State 8pm
I have to throw a small unit on this game just to have action. Look I have fallen in love with this Penn State team this year and think it will be a good way to send Joe Pa off by winning a Big 10 championship and maybe even a chance at the National Championship game. OK ..it is still early to be talking National Championship, but if they win this one at the Horseshoe, we mine as well start talking. This game will get off to a slow start and will probably be low scoring. Terelle Pryor is looking good and has a very good future, but I don't think he is ready for this big game yet. Go easy on this game fellas. Pick: Penn State (-2.5)

Beans' Weekly Winners: Week 9

Texas Tech (+1) at Kansas, noon
The Weekly was somewhat shocked to see this line. Texas Tech comes into this game riding its longest undefeated start in 30 years by winning each of their first seven games. Tech QB Graham Harrell is one of the reasons why the entire nation is focused on the Big XII. Over his last four games he's completed nearly 80% of his passes, even while some of his top wide outs have been banged up. Well the bad news for Kansas is that Michael Crabtree and Co. should be healthy and ready to explode this weekend in Lawrence. Kansas QB Todd Reesing is one of the most underrated players in the nation. He seems to always be overlooked because of the elite talent at his position within his conference. Reesing is a very good college quarterback, but can the offensive line give him enough time to make plays? The KU O-Line ranks 73rd in the nation in sacks allowed, and is going up against a defensive front which seems to be coming into its own. Ultimately we think that the underachieving offensive line won't be able to protect Reesing enough or run the ball enough to keep the Red Raider offense off the field. Kansas will put up points, but it won't be enough to stop Weekly Favorite Mike Leach's high octane offense.

South Florida (-3.5) at Louisville, 3:30pm
The Bulls still aren't getting the respect they deserve from the odds makers. A healthy South Florida team is going to be very, very tough to beat in the Big East this year. Don't let Louisville's 4-2 record fool you, they've played a glorified Sun Belt schedule. Three of their four wins have come over Tennessee Tech, Memphis and Middle Tennessee State. Thanks to that soft schedule RB Victor Anderson has averaged 7.0 yards per carry and rushed for six touchdowns. It is highly unlikely that he's going to be able to put up numbers like that against this South Florida defense, which means the ball will be in the hands of QB Hunter Cantwell. Against the aforementioned soft schedule, Cantwell has thrown for just eight touchdowns and eight interceptions, not a good ratio. The Bulls have a veteran team and know how to win on the road. They've won all three road games in 2008 and have won eight of their last ten away from Tampa. The Bulls are on a roll, tough away from home and playing an untested opponent. All signs point to a double-digit victory.

Penn State at Ohio State (+2), 8pm
Ohio State isn't playing in the national championship, whether they run the table or not. Don't let any Buckeyes tell you that they deserve it if they win out. They don't. This is a different team than the one who lost to USC, but that embarrassing USC loss still counts. The key here is that they are a different team than the one in early September. We saw it last week in their dominating win at Michigan State. Everyone knows what a healthy Beanie Wells can do, but Terrelle Prior is the one who is making the biggest difference for the OSU offense. He can make plays with his legs that Todd Boeckman can only dream about. More importantly, this Buckeye defense is one of the best in America, better than anything these Lions have seen. Penn State's first year starting QB Daryll Clark has been extremely impressive, but playing the Buckeyes at the Horseshoe is a different animal. Clark is playing behind an offensive line which is just okay, nothing special. Let's see how Clark responds to playing under college football's brightest lights, in the face of intense pressure from an incredibly fast defense. Penn State hasn't won in Columbus since 1978, we think that streak will continue.

UNLV at BYU (-23.5), 2pm
The Cougars are coming off their first loss in over a year. This is still a really good football team, and potent offense. QB Max Hall is one of the nation's best passers, one loss won't change that. Last week they ran into a TCU defense which, when playing well, can be as good as anyone in America. The Horned Frogs were the more focused team and took it to BYU. BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall is one of the brightest young coaches in college football and we expect his team to come out ready to dominate a lesser opponent. UNLV had an impressive win at then No. 15 Arizona State. A few weeks later that win doesn't look quite as impressive, since it looks like it's going to be a rebuilding year in Tempe. The Runnin' Rebels are coming off of three straight conference losses and have given up 229 points in seven games. The Cougars are ready to light up the scoreboard in front of the home crowd and stay in the hunt for a Mountain West championship. Cougars run away from the Rebels in this one.

Big Willy Style's Football Friday

College Football

4* Pitt (-10) over Rutgers - Pitt is surging, Rutgers is Rutgers again. They will have a hard time scoring against the Panthers D, hopefully this is the only team that dwells in NJ that fails in Pitt this weekend.

4* Georgia Tech (-14) over Virginia - I love Georgia Tech's option offense carving through weak Virginia D this week. Virginia will aslo have a miserable time putting points up on the board on the road against a strong Yellow Jacket defense.

3* Tennessee (+5) over Alabama - In a crazy college football season, I just have a funny feeling this is the week Bama's luck runs out. Yes even if it is by a Phil Fullmer coached squad.

3* Florida St. (-5.5) over Virginia Tech - I really like the Noles chances of finally winning a big game, by knocking off the Hokies and their young QB Tyrod Taylor going into a hostile environment.

2* Georgia (+1.5) over LSU - Georgia has found their groove and I think it continues in Baton Rouge this week. They are about to vault their way back into the national championship conversation.


Pro Football

5* Jaguars (-7) over Browns - The jags are rested and healthy and coming off a bye after a huge road win in Denver. They are ready to make a push in the AFC and it starts this week with a thrashing of the Browns at home.

4* Chiefs (+13.5) over Jets - This is what's great about betting.... THIS is what the greatest thing about betting is.... You bet to cover the spread.... HELLO?!?!?!? YOU BET... TO COVER....THE SPREAD. You don't bet to just bet it!!! That's the great thing about betting: you bet to cover the spread! And I don't care if you don't have any money. You go bet to cover the spread. When you start tellin' me it doesn't matter, then quit gambling. Get out! 'Cause it matters.

3* Titans (-4) over Colts - The Colts losses this year has been at the hands of teams that have been much more physical than they are. I cant think of a worse matchup for the Colts, they're season is in trouble.

3* Bengals (+9) over Texans - The Bengals have gotten so close every week to finally busting in the win column, and I really think they have a chance to win this outright, but like I said before... YOU BET... TO COVER... THE SPREAD.

2* 49ers (-5) over Seahawks - Bet against a Mike Singeltary coached team and tell me if you live to say so.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Thursday Night with Big Baby Dean

2* Auburn (+3.5) @ West Virginia 730pm

Both teams are horrible this year and are not very good ATS. Pat White will be back in the WVU offense and will be playing in front of a home crowd. Well in this matchup I will take the SEC team over the Big East. The Big East is flat out awful. Yes Tuberville and the Auburn Tigers have been playing like crap this year, but that is against some beastly teams in the SEC. They were supposed to lose those games anyway. Also, Auburn's defensive coordinator has seen this spread offense before while coaching the defense at Pitt the last few years. And oh yea, they held Pat White and Steve Slaton to 9 points that game. I went against WVU once on Thursday and am going against them again. Take the points.
Pick: 2* Auburn (+3.5)

And now for the NFL Weekly Wrap Up...

A long time reader by the name of Mister Ted asked if he can do a writeup for the NFL this week..and what the hell why not..Mister Ted has a great football mind and is up for the task each week. Come back for more of Mister Ted...

* The Dolphins have done a nice job in upsetting teams like the Patriots and Chargers, but stupid throws such as the one Chad Pennington made on Sunday will absolutely kill your chances of winning. You can't be giving any team, let alone the offensively challenged Ravens, free points. Eat the ball, take the sack, and it's a whole different game.

* Talk about inconsistent football, look no further than the Chargers. The final score doesn't do this game justice…the offense mustered 70 yards on the ground (40 for LT), coughed the ball up twice, and Rivers threw a pick. The Bills, meanwhile, are playing perfect football; balanced offensive attack, no turnovers, minimal penalties, and winning both sides of the line of scrimmage. Dick Jauron for Coach of the Year, you heard it hear first.

* The Saints welcomed back Shockey and Colston to the lineup, but unfortunately for Sean Payton neither of them can play defense nor hang onto a football (Shockey lost a fumble, Colston 2 drops, 0 catches)... The Panthers have a nice combo at RB, and a healthy Delhomme throwing to S. Smith to keep the safeties out of the box. That's a good recipe for winning.

* At 0-7, it's pretty clear that the Bengals need some changes on both sides of the football. That's what happens when you draft players who would rather make the police blotter than the stat sheet. They lack a presence at running back, Carson Palmer's best days may be behind him, and their best player on defense is NFC-East castoff Dhani Jones.

* Wasn't the Bears/Vikings game suppose to be a defensive struggle? Apparently not with the two teams combining for 28 points in the first quarter alone. How much more of the Gus Frerotte Show will Coach Brad Childress subject his team to? Seven interceptions coupled with a 72.6 QB Rating won't win many games...Kyle Orton on the other hand has a QB Rating of 91.4…that's how you effectively manage a game.

* Plaxico Ramirez? Or does Manny Burress sound better? To Plax's credit though, that offensive pass interference call was ridiculous…everybody who watched the game knows that. But to get penalized 15 yards for unsportsmanlike is detrimental to the team. Shut up and play, let the coach yell at the refs. He needs to stop pulling this bullshit because the games from here on out are only going to get tougher for the G-Men.

* Kudos to DeMarcus Ware for recording a sack for the tenth straight game…that's a pretty incredible accomplishment. Other than that there were not many highlights for the Cowgirls. They got man-handled by an inferior offensive line and the offense looks lost without Romo.

* The Titans are 6-0 with Kerry Collins under center. Like Orton, Collins manages the game perfectly…11 completions, 120 yards, and hand the ball off to Chris Johnson or Lendale White. Lather, rinse, repeat if necessary, then sit back and watch your defense dominate opponents. If you haven't already, throw the towel in on the Herm Edwards regime in KC. I am convinced that this franchise strives for mediocrity year-in, year-out.

* The same can be said for Detroit; at least they fired GM Matt Millen before he can mess up another draft. This team won't be competitive until 2010... Don't write in Chris Johnson as ROY just yet; Steve Slaton continues to rack up numbers with a much weaker offensive line.

* I really thought they would be a more watchable team this year with Brett the Jet at QB, but honestly I haven't been entertained once by the Jets this season. Sunday was no different against the Raiders. How did they lose this game with all of those penalties Oakland committed, not to mention Thomas Jones' best day as a Jet? Don't say because of a lucky kick by Janikowski in OT, because this game had tie written all over it and honestly, it looked like Mangini would have been ecstatic with that.

* The Browns fought hard and valiantly, but in the end they couldn't tie it up with a game-ending field goal. Clinton Portis is having an MVP-like year, and Campbell continues to play solid football. This is the second best team in the tough NFC East, and third or fourth in the Conference.

* Peyton looked a lot like Eli did against the Vikings the past two seasons. Two interceptions returned for touchdowns, one of them coming at the 1-yard line. Unacceptable… Ryan Grant finally produced what millions of fantasy football owners expected him to do all season: produce like the 2nd round pick he was suppose to be.

* Poor Mike Holmgren. His last memories as a head coach will be Seneca Wallace throwing lame ducks to Koren Robinson; I don't think any coach deserves that….Talk about dedicated, all-out football players, and Earnest Graham fits the bill. This guy has been filling in at FB the past two weeks and doing a great job as lead blocker for Warrick Dunn. With Dunn and Graham in the backfield together, the offense has produced back-to-back victories in convincing fashion.

* When your QB injures his finger on the first play of the game, he'll be in for a long night. Cutler was misreading coverages, throwing with less velocity, and missing his spots all night. Great time for a bye week. Andre Hall's stat line for MNF: 2 carries, -7 yards, and 2 fumbles lost. WOW. Mike Shanahan really found a keeper there…